Manheim: Watch for Impact of Off-Lease, Edmunds: Used Vehicles Will Be Younger December 10, 2015

Manheim Index Sees Used Prices Up for the Year

Tom Webb
Chief Economist
Cox Automotive

The Manheim Index came in at 125.1 in November, an increase of 1.5% from the previous year. The full-year 2015 Index is on track to post an increase for both an annual average and a year-over-year basis. The robustness of the retail market in new vehicle sales and used CPO sales drove the market up beyond initial expectations. While some lessors are posting gains on end-of-term units, that situation will change shortly unless it’s offset by strong retail markets.

Here’s the latest Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index report

Used Vehicle Sales Estimated to Come in Higher than 1% YTD in November:
CPO sales declined 4.7% in November, but have been up 8.7% YTD.

Rental Risk Prices Up 3.5% Over October and 2.5% Year-Over-Year:
Average mileage on risk units remained above 45,000 in November.

Average Auction Prices Showed Smaller Increase than in Each of Last 3 Years:
Auction prices for dealer-consigned declined from October but up 5% from year ago.

Edmunds Survey Finds High Interest in CPO Vehicles

Jessica Caldwell
Director of Industry Analysis

In an survey, 88% of 2,017 used car shoppers polled said that if they were shopping for a used car they would be willing to pay more a certified pre-owned vehicle. Among these potential CPO shoppers, 37.8% said that they would spend up to an additional $1,000 for the benefits of a CPO vehicle. The Edmunds survey findings were released at a time when CPO sales are hitting their all-time high levels; Edmunds analysts expect growth to continue in the coming year.

Here’s the Q3 Used Vehicle Market Report

Used Vehicle Market Saw 2.5% Sales Increase in the Third Quarter:
CPO sales made up 21.8% of franchised used sales, a third quarter record.

With Average Prices at $18,427, Used Car Prices Set Third Quarter Record:
Subcompact cars only segment to not see lift in transaction prices.

Used Vehicles Will be Younger with Higher Volumes of Off-Lease and Rental:
Higher price point of younger vehicles blurs new vs. used distinction.
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