Kontos: Trucks Took Lead but Market Solid Overall, Webb: CPO Sales Help Net Profit November 13, 2015

Off-Rental and Off-Lease Hit Harder than Overall Market

Tom Kontos
Executive VP & Chief Economist
ADESA Analytical Services

Truck prices continue to show the most uptick strength in the wholesale used vehicle market; however, wholesale values were solid overall in October in most model year and sale-type categories. Off-rental risk and off-lease vehicles were hit harder with price declines. Higher mileage vehicles hurt off-rental risk, and growing supplies of off-lease units softened those prices. Retail used vehicle sales were down a little bit, but still strong; CPO sales continued their stability.

Check out the latest edition of Kontos Kommentary

Wholesale Prices Up 1.1% Over September and 0.6% Over October 2014:
Trucks pushed up prices, but car prices rose more sequentially than trucks.

Used Vehicles Remarketed by Manufacturers Down 0.6% M-O-M but Up 5.2% Y-O-Y:
Off-rental program vehicles had a solid month, even with several no-sales.

Franchised Dealers Up 9.1% Y-O-Y in Used Vehicle Sales in September:
Independent dealers saw an 18.6% increase in Y-O-Y sales in that month.

Strong Used Vehicle Pricing Reflects Dealer Efficiency

Tom Webb
Chief Economist
Cox Automotive

The Index came in at 125.3 for October, up 2.9% from previous year. That reflects higher new vehicle transaction prices and a high-performance retail used vehicle environment. Dealer efficiency is being passed on to consumers and enabling dealers to bid up prices in wholesale market. SAAR is predicted at 17.3M for this year, which will likely have little effect on used values. Next spring may see a smaller bounce of incentive activity increases.

Here’s the latest edition of Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

Total Used Vehicle Sales Expected to Approach 40M for this Year:
Churn driven by soaring new vehicle sales, but growing CPO sales helps net profit.

Compact Cars Remain Weakest Segment in Recent Months and Over Past Year:
Luxury cars did well in October, but off-lease volume should bring it down next two months.

Relative Pricing Strength by Price Tier Consistent for All Price Points in October:
Unlike most months, there was no relationship between pricing and auction volumes for various price tiers.
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