KBB: Subaru Dominated Two Segments, IHS: Average Vehicle Age and Registrations Increase November 5, 2015
Foyil_Sean_Kelley Blue Book


Q3 Lowest Value in Two Years but Hit Seasonal Patterns

Sean Foyil
Analyst
Kelley Blue Book

Auction values were below prices seen in the third quarters of 2013 and 2014. Values averaged $850 this past quarter, $38 below Q3 2013 and $349 in Q3 2014. Even though the market is at a two-year low, KBB doesn’t see it as out of the ordinary. Auction volumes have been up compared to past two years; and values are seeing a typical seasonal patter throughout Q3 and into late Q4.

Blue Book Market Report changes over to quarterly edition

Gasoline Prices Hit Peak of $2.74 in June and Have Since Been on Decline:
Expect to see gas prices continue to decline slightly and maintain level in early 2016.

Mid-size and Full-size Pickups Have Outperformed Market for 1-to-3 Year Olds:
Nissan Frontier best mid-size performer, and Dodge Ram 3500 best in full-size.

Subaru Topped 2014 MY Mid-size and Compact Segments in Percent Retention:
Subaru Impreza performed at 73.8% retention, and Subaru Legacy was at 72.5%.
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Chesbrough_Charles_IHS Automotive


New Vehicle Sales Should Hit Peak in 2017

Charles Chesbrough
Senior Principal Economist
IHS Automotive

IHS Automotive will hit a peak of 18.2M new light-duty vehicles sold in 2017 before leveling off and declining to 16.97 in 2022. The previous peak was 17.4M in 2000, with 17.76M expected for next year and 17.31M in 2015. Low gasoline prices, consumer confidence, a strong housing market, and attractive auto loan financing are contributing to better-than-expected sales. Rising interest rates and higher vehicle prices are expected to soften new vehicle sales beyond 2017.

Here’s coverage of the IHS forecast report

Availability of Credit for Low-Interest Loans Has Been Major Sales Driver:
Average loan length continuing to lengthen – now at 64.6 months, nearly 5.5 years.

New Vehicle Sales Also Being Spurred by Wave of New Car and Truck Models:
Should be 76 new models introduced next year and 74 in 2017, up from 49 in 2015.

Average Age of Vehicles in Operation Will Increase 3% by 2020 from Current Level of 11.5 Years:
Registered vehicles have increased 2.1% - by 5.3M for a total of 257.9M U.S. vehicles.
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How VW TDI Recall Scandal Could Affect Resale Values

The mar­ket will be look­ing at per­for­mance met­rics includ­ing mpg, along with how the vehi­cles get fixed as part of the recall process.

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Selling Vehicles While They’re Still in Operation

Inno­v­a­tive tech­nol­ogy makes it pos­si­ble to doc­u­ment the con­di­tion of a vehi­cle in real time, and actu­ally sell that vehi­cle while it’s still in operation.

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