RVI: Nominal and Real Prices Down, NAAA: August Sees First Volume Drop October 6, 2015

RVI Predicts 6.6% Residual Value Drop by 2018

Rene Abdalah
VP, Passenger Vehicle
RVI Group

RVI predicts that residual values will see a big drop by 2018 - 6.6% below their current levels. That will come through increases in leasing through 2017 and a growing supply of used vehicles in the market through 2020. Another part of used vehicle prices softening is expected to come through heavy competition in the new vehicle sales with an increase in incentive activity.

Here's the latest edition of RVI Risk Outlook

Nominal Prices Down 0.6% from July, but Up 1% Year-Over-Year:
Real used vehicle prices down 0.7% from July, and down 1.4% from year ago.

Decline in Residual Values Not Observed in Every Vehicle Segment:
Larger vehicles and many luxury segments have seen increases year-over-year.

Nominal Prices in Canada Down 0.8% in August but Up 9.1% Year-Over-Year:
Real prices up 1.1% from July, and showed a year-over-year increase of 6.6%.


NAAA Expects to See Increase in Auction Volume this Year

Ira Silver
NAAA Economist
National Auto Auction Association

Auction volume this year will likely exceed nine million units and climb seven percent over last year, NAAA economist Ira Silver said during the annual convention last week in Orlando. Silver predicts auction unit volume should reach 9.3 million this year, and that is likely to be followed by a 4% increase next year to 9.7 million units sold at auctions in the U.S.

See the latest edition of NAAA's Economic Dashboard

Commercial and Dealer Consignment Have Increased in Past Two Years:
Last year marked first time in 6 years commercial climbed faster than dealer.

August Auction Volumes Saw First Y-O-Y Drop for 2015 at 2% Decline:
Auction volume still very strong for the year at 6.3% increase year-to-date.

Economic Figures Improving with Unemployment Rate Down to 5.1%:
New vehicle sales had a strong month with SAAR up to 17.7 million.
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