ADESA and NADA UCG Find Differing Results in Used Pricing September 17, 2015

Prices Fell from Year Ago from Surging Supply

Tom Kontos
Executive VP & Chief Economist
ADESA Analytical Services

Wholesale used vehicle prices fell year-over-year for the first time since August 2014 as a more clear picture is being painted on the downward pressure surging supply has on prices. Cars are seeing the impact more than trucks, which are weathering low gasoline prices better than cars. The impact of previously elevated higher-priced, late-model off-rental program vehicles are having less effect on the market. Pricing has become more clear in terms of seller-type composition.

Here's the latest edition of Kontos Kommentary

Average New Vehicle Incentives Have Been Climbing Recently:
That's putting further downward pressure on used vehicle prices.

At $9,575, Wholesale Prices Were Down 3.1% from July and 0.2% from Year Ago:
Car prices took the hit with a 5.2% annual decline, while truck prices shot up 9.8%.

Franchised Dealers Sold 10.6% More Y-O-Y in August, and Independents Were Up 12.4%:
CPO sales were down 0.1% from July and 1.1% from one year ago.

Prices Stayed Strong Despite Incentives and Rising Supply

Jonathan Banks
Executive Automotive Analyst
NADA Used Car Guide

NADA Used Car Guide’s used vehicle price index came in at 123.1 in August, up 0.3% from both July and August of last year. The index has only dropped 0.5% this year. Used vehicle prices have stayed strong despite new vehicle incentives and ongoing rise in supply. The index fell 1.9% from July 2015, which was stronger than NADA’s forecast of 2.2% to 2.7% decline - and a real improvement over last year’s decline of nearly 3%.

Here's the used vehicle report from NADA's latest Guidelines

Luxury Large Cars Down 16.2% in Prices Year-to-Date as Loss Leader:
Subcompact cars down 14.6% YTD, compared to 10.4% down for overall industry.

Auction Volumes Were at 291K Units in August and Down 8% from July:
Volumes of models up to 8 years old down 6% from last year's 310K units.

NADA UCG Forecasts September Prices Falling 2.5% to 3% from August:
This year's anticipated depreciation rate on par with 2.7% decline in past two years.
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