Kontos: Dealers Seeing Strong Sales Volumes, NAAA: June Had High Auction Volume July 16, 2015

Supply Growth Still a Factor, but not Enough to Destabilize Market

Tom Kontos
Executive VP & Chief Economist
ADESA Analytical Services

Average wholesale prices continued declining again during the month of June – down 2.5% from May, but up 2.4% relative to June 2014. Seasonal factors played a part, but supply growth continued to brig downward price pressure. Supply growth influence has been somewhat offset by a “richer mix” of higher-priced off-rental manufacturers program vehicles and off-lease units discussed in previous commentaries.

Here’s the latest edition of Kontos Kommentary

Used Retail Sales Were at Relatively High Levels, but Down a Bit from May:
Franchised dealers had 2.5% year-over-year sales increase, independents up 3.6%.

Increased Supply of Compact Cars Played Role in Softer June Prices:
SUVs also saw some price correction, but fuel prices remain favorable to them.

Off-Rental Program Volumes Softened Vehicles Remarketed by Manufacturers:
Rental risk units played their part in softening fleet/lease consignor used vehicle prices.


Auctions Continue Being an Integral Remarketing Channel

Dr. Ira Silver
National Auto Auction Association

Auctions continue being an integral part of U.S. remarketing channels; volumes at auctions were up 7.3% compared to the first six months of 2014. The market is seeing an upward trend following a steep drop off – with 10.7% growth in January 2015 followed by 5.4% in February and 4.5% in March, with June seeing the second highest volume growth rate for the year.

Check out the latest Economic Dashboard with May and June Numbers

June Was a Particularly Active Month – Up 8.3% in Volume Over June 2014:
Compared to May 2015 having been up 7.1% over May 2014 in auction volume.

New Light-Duty Vehicle Sales Had 1.5% Growth over June 2014:
Up 4.8% year-to-date and averaging a forecast of 16.8M units sold for the year.

Economic Indicators Solid for Unemployment Rate and New Hires:
Unemployment at 5.3% compared to 5.5% for year, with 223K new hires for the month.
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