Kontos: Softness in Institutional Sales, Banks: Price Decline Increasing in May May 21, 2015

Price Increases Continue to be at Surface Only, Kontos Says

Tom Kontos
Executive VP & Chief Economist
ADESA Analytical Services

ADESA Analytical Services saw another month of price increases driven by higher priced, late model rental program vehicles from automakers. Digging deep into the rest of wholesale transactions revealed softness in institutional sales coming from growth in supply. Wholesale used vehicle prices in April averaged $10,711 – up 0.7% compared to March and up 2.2% over April 2014.

See the latest edition of Kontos Kommentary

SUVs and Pickups Had Strong Price Increases Over March 2015:
During April, cars and crossovers generally saw weaker prices.

Used Vehicle Remarketed by Automakers Up 1.7% M-0-M and Down 7.6% Y-O-Y:
Fleet/lease consignor prices down 1.4% and dealer consignors up 2.4% Y-O-Y.

Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) Vehicle Sales Fell 3.4% from March 2015:
But were very strong compared to April 2014 – up 11.3%, according to Autodata.

NADA Sees April Price Declines Matching Seasonal Trend

Jonathan Banks
Executive Automotive Analyst
NADA Used Car Guide

Wholesale used vehicle values experienced typical seasonal patterns in April. While they were down 1.4% in price compared to March, that price decline was very similar to the 1.3% April decline recorded in 2013 and 2014. Cars fared worse than trucks in April, with subcompact and mid-size cars dropping 1.7% from March, and compact cars declining 1.4%.

The latest edition of Guidelines from NADA Used Car Guide

Mid-Size Van Was Only Truck Segment with Depreciation on Par with Cars:
Luxury mid-size and large cars continued to be among weakest performers, down 1.6%

Auction Volume Was Down 4% from March, But Up 7% Over April 2014:
2014 model year continued to represent lion's share of volume moving through lanes.

Prices of Vehicles Up to 8-Years-Old Should Fall 2.7% in May and 2% in June:
If this forecast proves to be accurate, losses would match decline over same period last year.
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