Kontos: Take No-Sold Vehicles As Seriously as those Being Sold, NADA: Precise Dealer Inventory Management a Key Player April 16, 2015

Look At All the Market Data and Not Just Monthly Pricing, Kontos Says

Tom Kontos
Executive Vice President & Chief Economist
ADESA Analytical Services

Wholesale prices were up month-over-month and year-over-year. While it was strong on both the seasonal and secular market levels, supply growth is bringing down pressure on prices. That’s made more clear by lower conversion rates and price weakness for particular age, sale type, and model class segments. One problem with basing conclusions on overall prices is that the data set omits vehicles that no-sold and encourages a false sense of confidence. Off-rental program vehicles fall in this class; vehicles that had been curtailed from late 2014 were nosale’d in March with hopes of finding better prices later.

Here’s the latest edition of Kontos Kommentary

Sale Prices Are Biased this Year by “Richer Mix” of Institutional Vehicles:
Late-model off-rental program vehicle have played part in elevating average prices.

Wholesale Prices Averaged $10,646 in March – up 4.7% Over February:
Truck Classes performed much stronger than the car and crossover classes.

Dealer Consignors Only Institutional Segment Seeing Lift from Year Ago:
CPO sales very strong – up 12.4% month-over-month and 7.4% year-over-year.

March Makes Up for Lost Ground Caused by Harsh Winter Weather

Jonathan Banks
Executive Automotive Analyst
NADA Used Car Guide

Prices of used vehicles up to eight years in age increased by 2.3% month-over-month in March, which was 1.5 percentage points more than February’s tepid 0.8% rise. It was also the highest increase recorded since March 2014 when prices ballooned by over 4%. The market made up for lost ground in March, as thawing temperatures allowed dealers and consumers to become much more active after harsh winter weather restricted market activity over the first two months of the year. Overall, post-recession increase is likely due in part to better and more precise dealer inventory management practices.

NADA’s Guidelines for April 2015

Mainstream Segments Saw price growth for Majority checked in between 2.3% to 2.7%:
Large pickups and subcompact cars fell short, with increases of 1.9% and 1.6%, respectively.

Auction Volume for Models up to 8 Years Old was About 341,000 Units in March:
Up 3% from February's level and more than 5% higher than March 2014.

March’s Strength and Seasonal Demand Should Help Limit April Deprecation at 1%:
Would be improvement over the 1.5% decline averaged over past 10 years (except for 2011 following Japanese tsunami).
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