ADESA and NADA See 2014 End on a Stronger Note than Expected January 21, 2015

2014 a Better Year than Expected for Wholesale Prices

Tom Kontos
Executive VP & Chief Economist
ADESA Analytical Services

Price stability continued in December. Wholesale used vehicle prices fell modestly, but were up year-over-year. Supply continued to grow through off-lease, off-rental, off-fleet, repos, and other channels. That was offset by dealer consignment volume yielding a “richer mix” that elevates average prices; other factors stabilizing prices included new vehicle incentives being fairly benign, strong retail used vehicle sales – especially of certified pre-owned vehicles, and redistribution of volume into multiple remarketing channels. Supply was also affected by disruptions due to weather and vehicle recalls.

Here’s the latest edition of Kontos Kommentary

Prices Were Down 0.3% from November and Up 2% Over December 2013:
Luxury and sporty cars had healthy price increases as dealers stocked for holidays.

Used Vehicles Remarketed by Manufacturers Up 9.6% M-O-M but Down 2.8% Y-O-Y:
Sale curtailments due to recalls were a factor in these December pricing results.

Retail Used Sales Reached 29.6M Units in 2014 – Close to Last Year’s Total:
Profitable certified sales were up – 2.3M units in 2014 versus 2.1M in 2013.

December Saw Strongest Price Results in Several Years

Jonathan Banks
Executive Automotive Analyst
NADA Used Car Guide

Wholesale used vehicle prices saw strong results for the month of December – one of the strongest on record. Dropping gasoline prices and dealers anxious to secure inventory for the fast-approaching tax refund season drove demand and strengthened prices on vehicles up to eight-years old. Those prices were up 0.3% over November and 1.4% over December 2013. That turned around a December trend with prices falling 1.4% from 2003 to 2013 and not seeing a used vehicle price increase in more than 20 years.

Here’s NADA Used Car Guide Industry Update

Large SUVs and Big Luxury Cars Fell Worst with Both Down 1.2%:
Luxury Compact Utilities Best Performing Segment Going Up by 1.3%.

Large Pickup Depreciation Leanest of All Segments for 3rd Year in Row:
Used large pickup prices up eight times overall market increase of 3.5%.

Expect to See Similar Seasonal Patterns Play Out During 2015:
In addition, prices will be most influenced by low gas prices, rising supply, and increased new market pressure.
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