Spinella: Expect to See Big Sales Gain in Spring, ALG: Toyota Top Residual Value Performer January 30, 2015
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Harsh Weather in Northeast Hasn’t Thrown Off Used Sales Very Much

Art Spinella
President
CNW Research

Transaction prices slipped slightly vs. December, but increased marginally vs. year ago. While catastrophic storms in the Northeast dampened used vehicle sales a bit, losses were minimal. Dealers are beginning to stock up for spring selling season, bolstering their inventory. Expect to see significant sales gains in March through May. Mileage driven by Americans went up slightly again last year – nearly 2% to 10,116.

Check out the latest edition of Retail Automotive Summary

Many Dealers Reduced Used Inventory Going into November-January Period:
Resulted in a shorter supply of vehicles and a 2.4% drop in Days’ Supply for winter.

Even With Anticipated Blizzard of Historic Proportions, Floor Traffic Still Rises:
Floor traffic rose for first two 10-day periods of January over same time in 2014.

Sub-Prime Market Below 550 in FICO Score Nearly 41% of Used Loans in 2014:
This year, expect to see full percentage point gain for under 550 and half point for those under 450.

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ALG Releases January/February Report and Residual Value Awards

Eric Lyman
Vice President, Industry Insights
ALG

The expected seasonal movement for residual values in this edition of ALG’s industry report is -0.4 percentage points (ppts). Relative to the November/December 2014 edition of the report, the real durable goods spending forecast is up, with a +0.3-ppt impact to residuals. Gasoline price declines contributed to lowering the value of fuel-efficient vehicles, while raising values for less fuel-efficient segments.

Here’s the January/February 2015 ALG report and ALG Residual Value winners

Total Residual Value Change Was –0.07 ppts. In 36-Month Term:
Overall macro impact for January/February compared to November/December is +0.3 ppts.

Used Supply Forecast Rose Causing a -0.38-ppt Impact on Residuals:
Ranged from –1.3 ppts for Fullsize Utility to +0.3 ppts for Minivans.

Toyota Took 6 Segment Wins in ALG Residual Value Awards:
Truck lineup especially strong with Tacoma, Tundra, Land Cruiser, and 4 Runner.
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AutoTrader Forecasts 9 Million Potential CPO Vehicles at NADA 2015

Why cer­ti­fied pre-owned vehi­cles will present a strong oppor­tu­nity over the next two years for retailers.

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Black Book Team at NADA 2015

Con­ver­sa­tions have been lively and over­all pos­i­tive with deal­ers at NADA 2015, and at auc­tions last week.

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