Both ADESA and NADA See High Off-Rental Volume and Agree that It’s Not Directing Prices November 20, 2014

October Bias Showed Increased Prices Outside the Real Trend

Tom Kontos
Executive VP & Chief Economist
ADESA Analytical Services

Wholesale used vehicle prices in October averaged $9,678 – up 1.3% compared to September and up 0.9% from October 2013. The market saw a biased average that masked the inherent softness in the wholesale used vehicle market that faces high incoming supply. That bias was influenced by a large proportion of higher priced, late-model rental program vehicles, some of which were sold after long delays from recalls.

Here’s the latest Kontos Kommentary market report

Average Prices for Minivans Up Significantly As in September:
Reflects increase in percentage of current and one-year-old models sold in factory sales.

Franchised Dealers Took Used Supply from Off-Lease and Trade-ins:
Demand for used retail by dealers at auctions didn’t have quite the support for auction prices as in previous months.

CPO Sales Up 7.5% Over September and Up 13.8% Over October 2013:
Strong CPO has been particularly useful in absorbing high incoming lease volumes.

October Downturn Came from Increasing Late-Model Supply

Jonathan Banks
Executive Automotive Analyst
NADA Used Car Guide

October’s performance pulled NADA’s price index down by three-tenths of a point from September to 121, and down from 122.6 in October 2013. Wholesale prices for vehicles up to eight-years old fell by 3.7% from September, which was the fourth month in a row with depreciation at or above 3%. Prices were shaped by increasing late-model supply combined with waning demand typical in that season.

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Incentives Played Less of a Role Dampening Prices than in 3 Prior Months:
While incentives moderated, number of late-model vehicles sold at auction continued to expand.

Off-Rental 2014 Model Year Volume Surged by 37% by End of October:
Typical off-rental vehicle growth through the fall suggests surge not quite noteworthy.

November Price Losses Expected to be Most Severe for Mid-size Vans:
Large pickups, industry’s best performing segment, expected to fall by less than 2%.
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Dur­ing Used Car Week con­fer­ence, per­spec­tives were gained from indus­try per­son­nel con­nected to CPO, lenders, repos­ses­sion, and tra­di­tional channels.

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Kelley Blue Book’s 2015 Best Buy Awards

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