Manheim: Prices Dropping but Dealers Seeing Gains, NADA: March Prices Should See 1% Gain, then Drop Begins March 13, 2014

Pressure on Resale Values Offset Somewhat by Profitable Dealer Sales

Tom Webb
Chief Economist
Manheim Consulting

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index was 123.3 in February, a 1.1% increase from a year ago and 0.8% over January. Income tax refunds played a part in propping up wholesale values; readily available and attractive retail financing deals helped make used market more profitable than actual sales numbers would suggest. Pressure on resale values coming from new vehicle sales, incentives, fleet deliveries, and growing wholesale supply.

February 2014 Manheim Consulting report

While Used Retail Sales Volume Was Down, Dealers Say Sales Profit Rising:
And CPO sales in first two months of 2014 were up 12.3%.

Compact Car Pricing Hurt by Ample Supply and Competitive New Vehicle Pricing:
Pickups remained in high demand in wholesale market with less-than-adequate supply.

At Straight Average, Rental Risk Prices Were Down from Year Ago but Up from January:
Average mileage in auction sales reached all-time high of more than 42,300.

NADA: One More Month of Increase Before Prices See Real Decline

Jonathan Banks
Senior Director
NADA Used Car Guide

NADA’s index remained unchanged in February for the third month in a row at 124.6, tying August 2013, December 2013, and January 2014 as 3rd highest figure recorded. Favorable weather in 2nd half of February allowed for prices to grow an additional 1.5 points, ending month with 2.2% increase. While prices should increase another 1% in March, they’re expected to fall 2.5% to 3% per month through June.

Here’s the March edition of Guidelines

Price Movement Strong Across All Mainstream Segments – Up 1% to 3.2%:
Compact cars did 2.8% over January, mid-size cars were up 3.2%.

Trade-in Values Increased by an Average of 0.7%:
Car values increased by 1%, and truck values were up by 0.2%.

Harsh Weather Conditions Again Took their Toll on New Vehicle Sales:
Sales were essentially flat at –0.1%; seasonally adjusted annual rate was at 15.3M.
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